With promising forecasts recently released by Boeing and Airbus, the commercial aviation industry is buoyed by the potential for expanding future sales led by the robust Asia market.
Soaring with the Winds of the Asian Market
Airbus and Boeing are both beaming with optimism as they anticipate substantial growth in the next two decades. Interestingly, Asia is predicted to play a crucial role in this projected upswing.
Boeing, in its 2023 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), estimates that the global demand for new commercial jets will reach a whopping 42,595 by 2042. These aircraft have a staggering value of $8 trillion. The company’s outlook is an annual tradition since 1961 and it was unveiled just before the Paris Air Show. This year’s outlook is particularly significant as it comes three years post the pandemic era that saw the global fleet largely grounded.
Boeing’s CMO reveals some key findings:
- The continuous outpacing of global economic growth (2.6%) by passenger traffic.
- The likely doubling of the global fleet to 48,600 jets, expanding at a rate of 3.5% annually.
- The expected replacement of about half of the global fleet with new, more fuel-efficient models.
Brad McMullen, Boeing’s Senior Vice President of Commercial Sales and Marketing, proudly declared, “The aviation industry has demonstrated resilience and adaptability after unprecedented disruption, with airlines responding to challenges, simplifying their fleets, improving efficiency and capitalising on resurgent demand.”
Boeing’s Future Predictions and Airbus’ Revised Forecast
Boeing foresees more than 40% of the global demand will come from Asia-Pacific markets, half of which will be from China. India will account for over 90% of the South Asia’s fleet expansion, which is expected to grow more than 7% annually, the world’s fastest rate. North America and Europe will each account for about 20% of the global demand.
Airbus too, shares a similar optimistic forecast. It has elevated its 20-year prediction for new airplane deliveries and indicates that the future global airline fleet will concentrate on replacing older jets. Airbus forecasts 40,850 deliveries, up from last year’s 39,490. It expects the global fleet to more than double to 46,560 aircraft in 2042 from a pre-COVID level of 22,880 units at the start of 2020.
Major Deals Brewing for Airbus at the Paris Airshow
Buzz is also building about Airbus potentially landing a massive order at the Paris Airshow. Reports suggest that Airbus is preparing to announce an unprecedented 500-aircraft agreement with Indian carrier IndiGo on the first day of the event. If this goes through, it will effectively double the airline’s existing backlog.
The conclusion of both of these transactions is eagerly anticipated by the industry, even as negotiations continue. Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury said on Friday, “the show will demonstrate how the industry is returning back to the good old times of excitement.”
The recent forecasts by Airbus and Boeing show a clear resurgence of the aviation industry after the pandemic. The emphasis on more efficient and sustainable aircraft models reflects the changing priorities in global transportation. It’s an exciting time for the commercial aviation industry and there’s no better place to witness it than the Paris Airshow.
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