In a recent media briefing, it was reported that Tony Fernandes is planning to launch flights to the United States mainland via Manila. Likely destinations include Los Angeles or San Francisco, or perhaps both. They aim to start these flights in 2025, coinciding with the year Philippine Airlines will receive their new Airbus A350-1000. The question now is, can AirAsia initiate direct flights from Manila to the US mainland? The answer depends on whether they will lease or acquire long-range aircraft such as the Boeing 777-300ERs, Airbus A350s, or Boeing 787s, or if they decide to reconfigure their A330neos for transpacific operations.
Another possible strategy is forming a codeshare agreement with PAL on its US flights.
A Look at AirAsia’s Long-Range Planes
AirAsia utilizes only one type of widebody aircraft, and it’s none other than the A330. Currently, they operate two variants: the A330-300 and the A330-900neo, of which two are stored, with 15 more on pending orders. AirAsia previously operated the A340-300 for flights from Kuala Lumpur to Europe, but these long-haul, low-cost flights were not profitable at the time.
Using the great circle map, the distance between Manila and Los Angeles is 6,348 nmi, while Manila to San Francisco is 6,071 nmi. An Airbus A330-300 has a maximum range of 6,350 nmi when configured with only 277 passengers. Therefore, the A330-300 is not suitable for launching Manila to US flights, particularly since AirAsia’s A330-300s are configured with 377 passengers. Thus, this aircraft is definitely out of consideration for such routes.
Now, let’s consider the A330neo or the A330-900. This aircraft has a range of 7,200 nmi at a maximum capacity of 287 passengers, definitely longer than the A330-300 and within the range of non-stop flights from Manila to the US West Coast. However, AirAsia’s A330neos are also configured with 377 seats, reducing their range to around 6,549 nmi due to the additional weight. While the plane can comfortably fly non-stop from Manila to Honolulu, flying all the way to Los Angeles might be challenging, even with favorable tailwinds, as it approaches its range limitations.
If AirAsia decides to operate US flights with their current aircraft, they will likely need to include stopovers, either in Honolulu or Seoul Incheon.
Now, why doesn’t AirAsia just reconfigure their A330neos with 287 seats? Doing so would significantly increase ticket prices, possibly to levels as high as or even higher than those of legacy airlines, which offer better amenities and comfort. Keeping a 377-seat configuration allows them to maintain lower ticket prices, but transpacific flights introduce a different set of challenges.
More than Just Planes
Introducing long-haul, low-cost flights from Manila to the US mainland could be a significant challenge for AirAsia, as this market typically seeks comfort. Therefore, AirAsia would need to invest in additional amenities, such as increasing legroom and shoulder room in their seats. Including WiFi or in-flight entertainment systems (IFEs) on their planes would also be necessary. Naturally, meals would need to be provided.
Beyond passenger amenities, crew amenities, such as crew rest areas, are also crucial. The Airbus A330 isn’t designed to have a crew rest compartment above the passenger cabin, unlike the 787, A350, and 777. Instead, a crew rest area would need to be installed either in the belly or near the cargo area of the A330. The A340s had their crew rests located below the passenger cabin, next to the cargo area. Furthermore, for a 13-hour flight, the aircraft would need to accommodate additional crew members, which would entail layovers of at least 24 hours.
AirAsia might also need to invest in lounges in both Manila and the United States, particularly for their business class passengers. Additionally, they face competition from Philippine Airlines, United Airlines, and other Asian legacy carriers.
Therefore, can AirAsia successfully operate Manila to US mainland flights? This needs careful consideration, as it would involve significant investment in aircraft, amenities, manpower, operational expenses, and other factors. The risks are also high, given the dominance of legacy airlines on such routes. Historically, not all routes are conducive to “low-cost flying.” Perhaps, for AirAsia, a wiser initial step would be to focus on establishing long-haul flights from Manila to the Middle East and Australia, destinations for which they already possess suitable aircraft. This strategy aligns with Cebu Pacific’s decision to avoid transpacific routes, acknowledging them as outside their core market.
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