Global airline capacity in April remains almost stagnant, with only a marginal increase from March. Approximately 18 million fewer airline seats were available in April compared to the same month in pre-pandemic 2019. According to OAG’s April Airline Frequency and Capacity Statistics, there were 449.47 million seats available this month, representing a 4% drop from April 2019 and a mere 1.8% gain from last month.
Regional Differences in Airline Capacity
Out of the 17 regions analyzed by OAG, seven exceeded their 2019 capacity: Central Asia (+25%), Central/Western Africa (+22%), Central America (+16%), South Asia (+10%), North Africa (+10%), Upper South America (+9%), and Eastern Africa (+6%). The Asia-Pacific (APAC) regions were divided into five groupings, with APAC having 168.5 million seats, or 37% of global capacity. In comparison, Europe had 107 million, North America 102 million, and Latin America 38 million.
Interestingly, Western Europe capacity increased by 12% month-on-month, but it is still 7% less than in April 2019. The most significant change in the Asia-Pacific region was in North East Asia, where relaxed travel restrictions led to a boost in capacity. However, South East Asia remained stagnant and 19% below pre-pandemic capacity, with Southwest Pacific behind by 9%.
China Leads the Way, Japan and South Korea Lag
China, which had been lagging, is now pushing forward with 75 million seats available this month, 5% more than in April 2019. On the other hand, Japan (-36%) and South Korea (-24%) are holding North East Asia back, offsetting the gains made in China.
March traffic figures from the Asia Pacific Airlines Association show that the region has recovered to around 54% of pre-COVID levels. However, South East Asia’s lost capacity is particularly noticeable. Six countries account for 96% of the 34.2 million seats available in the region, with only Vietnam being ahead of 2019, albeit by a mere 0.1%.
The available seats and April 2019 comparisons in OAG’s report include Indonesia with 10 million seats (-17%), Thailand with 6 million seats (-28%), Vietnam with 5.7 million seats (+0.1%), the Philippines with 4.3 million seats (-38%), Malaysia with 4.2 million seats (-27%), and Singapore with 2.8 million seats (-58%).
Summer Season and Future Airline Capacity
As the northern summer approaches, airline capacity numbers are likely to change significantly in the coming months. The critical question is how much capacity US, European, and UK airlines will release for the summer peaks and how well they can deliver on it.
Major Chinese carriers have signaled their return to the game, while aggressive low-cost carriers like AirAsia, VietJet, and IndiGo are adding aircraft, new routes, and extra frequencies. Barring any unforeseen external shocks or Southwest-style meltdowns, the 100% COVID-recovery barrier may be broken in the not-too-distant future.
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