In 2020, I remembered telling me that “aviation is dead” and “aviation will recover only in 2024 at the earliest”. I, however, had a different take; the airlines will begin to recover once more people get vaccinated. Come 2022; it will be incredible to see airlines’ recovery in the Philippines is faster than expected.
Revenge travel
In a conversation with some flight attendants last 2021, I told them that airlines would make a strong recovery. Filipinos are so eager to go and travel, especially after being in lockdown for two years and so. I doubt it would take three to five more years for travel demand to reach the pre-pandemic level. It will all depend on the covid-19 vaccine and how fast people get inoculated.
Come 2022; we will see a lot of planes flying again. Airports are jampacked with passengers. Airlines are rehiring those crew members and employees who were retrenched due to faster-than-expected recovery.
This is due to what we call “revenge travel”. It’s like bringing a hungry person who has not eaten for more than a day to a buffet. People are so eager to travel again! After more than a year of “cabin fever”, it was indeed time for them to be back inside an aircraft’s cabin.
They simply wanted to do what they weren’t able to do in the last years during the lock downs.
The domestic sector was the first to recover as travel restrictions eased. Even with international borders requiring quarantine protocols and numerous travel documents, local airlines such as Philippine Airlines, Cebu Pacific, and AirAsia Philippines continued to grow their domestic capacity.
From zero to 85% pre-pandemic capacity
In 2020, local airlines were barely flying, especially during ECQ or Enhanced Community. Fast forward to 2022, airlines are now operating at an average of 85% of their pre-pandemic capacity. Cebu Pacific has even reported that their domestic sector works beyond pre-pandemic levels, clearly showing vital recovery signs for our local airlines.
The time frame was faster than expected. People were forecasting that airlines would only be able to restore 80% of pre-pandemic capacity in 2023; the earliest is December 2022 during the holiday season.
Airlines have also achieved high forward booking rates from their promos. AirAsia Philippines and Cebu Pacific have been going head-on in offering the best promo fares, further spurs air travel. Flights are at total capacity, too, as of this writing.
China and other Asian countries are still set to fully open their borders
China is a vast travel market for our local aviation industry; their borders are still closed now. Other Asian countries are still limiting the entry of foreign tourists and passengers to their country. Amidst all these, airlines in the Philippines are operating at beyond 80% of their pre-pandemic capacity, given the speed of their recovery.
What’s more, when China and these other Asian countries full open their borders.
Just imagine how the total capacity of our local airlines may jump up!
More flight crew will be needed
At this point, airlines in the Philippines have been hiring more flight crew, particularly cabin crew, to support their recovery. PAL Express and AirAsia Philippines continue to stage cabin crew recruitment events due to shortages in the workforce. Our local airlines have been pushing to regrow their respective cabin crew roster, which is vital in the airline’s recovery phase.
The lack of workforce is hampering our local airlines from continuing their growth plans. Many cabin crew members fly beyond the average flying hours in a month but still within the annual threshold.
Once China and other countries fully open their borders with less or even zero restrictions, except that the local airlines will need more flight crew again.
2022 is just the beginning
This year is not even the peak yet of the recovery of our local airlines. I am expecting 2023 and beyond to be a year where we will feel this full recovery. Airlines will take delivery of new aircraft, more countries will open their borders, airlines will hire more crew members again, more hubs will open, and more airlines may take to the skies. For as long as we don’t experience another wave of viruses and diseases, I expect our local airlines t surpass their pre-pandemic capacity in 2023.
To all those who dream of becoming a pilot and cabin crew one day, don’t feel too pressured. This is just the beginning. Expect more soon, for as long as we remain on track, and the coronavirus situation is finally controlled.
Resilient local aviation industry
If there is one thing about our local aviation industry, they are resilient. Philippine Airlines, Cebu Pacific, and AirAsia Philippines could do this without any solid financial backing from the Philippines. They were, however, provided with waived gate fees during the middle of the lockdown.
It looks bright for our airlines in the Philippines as they move from recovery to growth. Keep supporting our local airlines! They plan an essential role in the country’s economy.
First love never dies. I fell in love with airplanes and aviation when I was a kid. My dream was to become a pilot, but destiny led me to another path: to be an aviation digital media content creator and a small business owner. My passion for aviation inspires me to bring you quality content through my website and social accounts. Aviation is indeed in my blood and blog!
