Why didn’t Philippine Airlines get the Boeing 747-8 Intercontinental

Philippine Airlines was an operator of Boeing 747 for 35 years. Why didn’t they consider operating the latest version of the jumbo jet, the 747-8 Intercontinental? The 747-8 is a magnificent aircraft, way more beautiful than the superjumbo Airbus A380-800. It has a range of 15,000km. It can fit 467 passengers in a 3-class configuration. Why didn’t PAL even consider this?

In truth, Philippine Airlines DID study the possibility but found it not fit for the airline today despite operating 747 in the past. PAL’s largest aircraft is the Boeing 777-300ER, while the American aircraft manufacturer is pitching their upcoming 777-9X. 

Considerations when airlines choose an aircraft

There are a lot of factors to consider when choosing an aircraft for the fleet, and the process takes years. These include but are not limited to fuel efficiency, price, configuration, maintenance costs, range, cockpit commonality, payload, an airline’s present destination, future destinations, market, fuel load, airport facilities, and utilization rate, to name a few.

Airlines also consider the passenger profile, wherein they have to know what the passengers want, including the scheduling of the flights.

Another factor is the route network. As much as possible, airlines want to maximize every route, whether the hub would be used as a transit point or a point-to-point hub. There are many more factors, but here are the primary reasons why PAL feels that the 747-8 Intercontinental doesn’t fit the requirement.

Fuel economics

First and foremost, fuel is an airline’s most significant expense, accounting for about 30%. An aircraft’s fuel economy is the first thing to be considered, and we are looking at fuel burn here. The lower the fuel burn, the better. 

Let us compare both the Boeing 777-300ER and the 747-8I. The 777 has a fuel burn rate of 8.49kg/km on an 11,000km sector carrying 365 seats. This equates to 2.91L/100km. The 747-8 consumes 10.54kg/km on an 11,000km sector, taking 467 seats, equating to 2.82L/100km. One may say that the fuel burn of a 747-8I is higher, but it carries more passengers. Well, that’s exactly it; the aircraft has to take that many passengers for the airline to recuperate the higher fuel costs. Not all the time, PAL gets a consistently high load factor. The low season proves otherwise. It will be too risky for PAL to operate a massive aircraft with that number of seats knowing that they cannot be filled up all the time. The higher the load factor, the better.

Twin engines over quad jets

The Boeing 747-8I is equipped with 4 GEnx-2B67, versus the 777-300ER’s twin GE9-115BL turbofan engines. Today, ETOPS-certified twin-engine ultra-long-range aircraft are the preference of almost all airlines, such as the Boeing 777, Airbus A350, Airbus A330, and Boeing 787. The world’s largest passenger aircraft, the Airbus A380, was deemed the future of air travel, but that is far from happening as its operators slowly begin to retire them from service to the point that Airbus ended its sale. There is no secondary market for the A380 as foreseen by Emirates, the world’s largest operator of the A380. Indeed, having two engines is easier on the pockets versus four as maintenance costs are also higher on the latter. 

Aircraft utilization

Let us now look at utilization. The more an aircraft is utilized, the better. Airlines hate ramp queens. Instead of becoming an asset, they turn into liabilities. If Philippine Airlines were to have the Boeing 747-8I, they would indeed be flying these to the United States and Europe. Flying them only to the United States and Europe will make them underutilized, so they must be passed to other destinations like Asia and Oceania.

Yes, we may think that instead of operating two Airbus A330s in Hong Kong, Philippine Airlines can use just one Boeing 747-8 flight. One flight instead of two. One gate rental instead of two gates. However, the question is how the market will respond to lesser frequencies.

More frequencies, more options for the passengers

Many of PAL’s passengers interconnect to other domestic destinations from an international flight, and ease of transfer also attracts passengers. Fewer frequencies may cause passengers to wait long hours in the transit hub due to fewer flight times, which may end unsound for them. This may result in passengers taking a low-cost airline with multiple frequencies for both international and domestic routes.

Having more frequencies utilizing smaller aircraft may be more sound for PAL’s passengers than using big aircraft with fewer flights frequency. For example, two LAX-MNL flights in a day utilizing Boeing 777-300ER and Airbus A350-900 can be more advantageous than just one Boeing 747-8 flight, giving passengers more choices. The load factor is another thing to consider if PAL would use a jumbo to short hop destinations to utilize the aircraft entirely. Again, fuel economics.

The Boeing 777-9X fits the picture more than the 747-8I

There are a lot of factors why PAL fleet planners do not see the 747-8I as the aircraft that will fit the airline’s requirements, and another factor we see here is future aircraft to be made available in the market. The passenger version of the 747-8I has ended production. Only 36 are currently in service with the airlines versus its freighter version. With the upcoming Boeing 777-9X, which can carry 395 passengers in a 3-class configuration, it is doubtful that airlines will even consider reviewing the 747-8I if it is still in production. 

The Boeing 777-9X is also a newer aircraft soon to be released. It is still based on the same 777 frames but longer and more efficient.

Predicting the future fleet of Philippine Airlines

If you want to try to predict the future fleet of PAL, take notice of the fleet of Cathay Pacific and see how similar they are. Both Cathay Pacific and PAL got rid of their 747s. Both don’t like the A380, nor did they go for the 747-8I (Cathay Pacific operates freighter versions of the 747-8). Presently, their largest aircraft is the Boeing 777-300ER. After Cathay Pacific ordered the Airbus A350-900, PAL followed. Cathay’s first A350 commercial flight was HKG – MNL, whereas PAL’s A350 first revenue flight was MNL-HKG. Both didn’t go for the 787 and instead stayed with the  A330-300. Currently, Cathay also flies the A350-1000 and has an order for the Boeing 777-9X. Both PAL and Cathay Pacific now also operate the A321neo.

Since airlines can no longer purchase the B747-8I, it is most likely that PAL’s next giant count is the 777-9X. However, with the recent changes brought by the pandemic, the airline may end up having the Airbus A350-1000 as a 777-300ER replacement shortly. Yes, there can also be a possibility that PAL may still go for the Boeing 777-9X later on, but I am also not discounting the likelihood of them acquiring the B787-10. We will know in a few years.

In as much as we would have wanted it to grace the fleet of Philippine Airlines, the Boeing 747-8I would have been no longer efficient and feasible versus newer twin-engine aircraft.